Thirteen years ago, in 2013, I started 65Percent.org to advocate for national consensus and reconciliation among Ethiopians. When the newly formed Prosperity Party–in late 2019–embraced building national consensus as the #1 priority of their political program, 65% ended its activities.
I am pleased today that Ethiopia has begun its National Dialogue. The ruling Prosperity Party, the Parliament, and members of the National Dialogue Commission are much appreciated for their work in enabling the National Dialogue to come to session.
The misgivings some have about the National Dialogue are a result of chronic political trauma, lack of analytical depth, and a misdirected frustration due to the current domestic economic hardships.
But discussions about the National Dialogue have not given attention to the impact of the National Dialogue on Ethiopia’s politics AFTER the results of the Dialogue are presented to the House of Representatives and the implementation process begins.
Given today’s domestic, regional and global elevated geopolitical challenges, what are the desired outcomes and the unexpected risks of the National Dialogue to the Ethiopian people?
DESIRED OUTCOMES
The current multi-national constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has indeed succeeded in creating a new generation of Ethiopians who are empowered with their cultural identities–nationalities. More than 100 million of Ethiopians today were born and/or raised under the current constitutional order.
However, even after the deep grievances against imperial Ethiopia and its economic exploitations and cultural oppressions were addressed–starting with the 1974 revolution and culminating in the 1994 ratification of the current multi-national federal constitution–the residuals of cultural identity politics in Ethiopia have been fracturing the shared multi-national identity of the Ethiopian people–Pan Ethiopianism. That has resulted in a sustained backlash against “ethnic” politics in Ethiopia for the past three decades.
Due to the FDRE’s ‘rigid’ constitutional amendment process, the National Dialogue is a deeper, organic and people centered approach to rebuild the eroded legitimacy of the current constitution and repair the damage to our shared multi-national Pan Ethiopian identity.
More significant than amending the cultural dimensions of the Constitution is the fundamental economic question of property rights. No matter what is done to empower multi-national pan Ethiopianism, what is critical to the welfare of the Ethiopian people and the survival of the Ethiopian State is the economic dynamics that will result from amending the property rights of the Ethiopian farmers, pastoralists and urbanites. Without economic agency and the resulting transformative rise in agricultural productivity, Ethiopia’s cycle of poverty will perpetuate the misery and destitution of the Ethiopian masses.
With the continued growth of the Ethiopian population expected to reach 150 million between 2030 and 2035–that is less than ten years from now–the risk of Ethiopia becoming a failed State due to extreme instability driven by economic insecurity is something every sane Ethiopian should take heed. Property rights are a matter of survival of the Ethiopian people and our beloved country.
UNEXPECTED RISKS
The outcome of the National Dialogue will be the major test of the Prosperity Party since its creation six years ago. The likelihood of a split within the ruling party due to a clash of divergent visions for Ethiopia’s upcoming critical decades between PP’s multi-nationalists versus ethno-nationalists may reveal existing cracks hidden only by suppressed misgivings of PP’s ethno-nationalists.
The recent comments by Oromia’s President Shimelis Abdisa that ‘there are some who want Oromia regional state not to exist’ is one of the early signs of an emerging PP division due to an expected outcome of the National Dialogue.
Ethiopia’s domestic conflicts have not found an end in the past 8 years. Economic hardship has driven millions below the poverty line while the Prime Minister is obsessed with his pet projects that the Ethiopian people have not mandated.
With a highly incapable and ideologically lacking Prime Minister, who does not respect the Constitutional power of the Ethiopian House of Representatives–refusing to disclose his sources of funding for his pet projects–the post National Dialogue domestic instability in Ethiopia, with a divided ruling party, will become exacerbated.
Such domestic predicament will increase perceived uncertainty about Ethiopia's security, compounding the economic hardship of the Ethiopian people, which will eventually lead to unrest and protests.
The current volatile East African, Middle Eastern and global uncertainties will be a serious existential risk for the Ethiopian federation given the past 8 years of, mostly failed, unprincipled and ideologically incoherent leadership of Abiy.
The National Dialogue, with a viable potential to rebuild the damaged legitimacy of the FDRE’s Constitution among the vast majority of Ethiopians, is a positive step forward in developing a culture of dialogue and consensus building for the country's vastly young demographics.
But without careful foresight into the after effects of the National Dialogue and its implications for the ruling party, while also replacing the incapable and ideologically challenged leader of the ruling party, Ethiopia will not reap the fruits of the National Dialogue but will descend into more turmoil.
Such turmoil will eventually put the leaders and members of the Prosperity Party in conflict with the Ethiopian people in the same way leaders and members of the Derg/WPE and some of the EPRDF leaders and members have faced.